This survey was conducted and analysed by Maris Sala. We put together a survey to study the opinions of timelines and probability of human extinction of the employees at Conjecture. The questions were based on previous public surveys and prediction markets, to ensure that the results are comparable with people’
As a product engineer at Conjecture, you’ll build the frontend and backend of the tools that accelerate the next era of cognition. Practically this means building ML APIs alongside our ML engineers, easy to use front-end interfaces alongside talking to customers to understand their pain points and building solutions
Conjecture aims to capitalize on pooling skills from various specializations. Whether or not you are specialised in one of the major fields of predilection (e.g., AI Safety, ML), you can still bring your talent to the team. If your mind is brilliant enough, we assume you can contribute to
This post was written as part of the work done at Conjecture. You can try input swap graphs in a collab notebook or explore the library to replicate the results. Thanks to Beren Millidge and Eric Winsor for useful discussions throughout this project. Thanks to Beren for feedback on a
By Adam Shimi Introduction In Old Masters and Young Geniuses, economist-turned-art-data-analyst David Galenson investigates a striking regularity in the careers of painters: art history and markets favors either their early pieces or the complete opposite — their last ones. From this pattern and additional data, Galenson extracts and defends a separation
By Adam Shimi Nothing hampers Science and Engineering like unchecked assumptions. As a concrete example of a field ridden with hidden premises, let's look at sociology. Sociologist must deal with the feedback of their object of study (people in social situations), their own social background, as well as the myriad
By Adam Shimi. I wouldn’t bet on any current alignment proposal. Yet I think that the field is making progress and abounds with interesting opportunities to do even more, giving us a shot. Isn’t there a contradiction? No, because research progress so rarely looks like having a clearly
This is part of the work done at Conjecture. This post has been reviewed before publication as per our infohazard policy. We thank our external reviewers for their comments and feedback. This post serves as a signpost for Conjecture’s new primary safety proposal and research direction, which we call
The following are the summary and transcript of a discussion between Paul Christiano (ARC) and Gabriel Alfour, hereafter GA (Conjecture), which took place on December 11, 2022 on Slack. It was held as part of a series of discussions between Conjecture and people from other organizations in the AGI and
From our point of view, we are now in the end-game for AGI, and we (humans) are losing. When we share this with other people, they reliably get surprised. That’s why we believe it is worth writing down our beliefs on this. 1. AGI is happening soon. Significant probability
